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Abstract:
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The purpose of this research was to analyze cost and investment return of Nham (Fermented Pork business in Chiang Mai for those who were interested in starting Nham business and could adjust the future work plan when the variation of business conditions occurred due to any changes in costs or returns. Data was collected by using Monte Carlo Simulation Technique, a simulation for 60 months (5 years in advance and analyzing the investment in the form of Net Present Value (NPV, Internal Rate of Return (IRR and payback period. The analysis was based on the sale revenue and the business costs which included production cost, raw material cost, inventory cost and financial cost. Apart from those, it needed to consider the uncertainty of the data, such as sale revenue, various prices of raw materials, and etc. so that the model corresponded to the most real situation.
The finding indicated that the current value of Net Present Value (NPV was equal to 3,323,591.10 Baht and was greater than zero. It clearly showed Nham business had a return rate that was worth an investment because it gave payback approximately within 11 months, and 59 days which took time less than the length of the entire project (Project life 5 years with Internal Rate of Return (IRR at 7.85%. When comparing to the loan rate (The lending interest rate on Minimum Loan Rate (MLR by 18 Commercial Banks registered in Thailand was 6 percent at an average, it was found that the internal rate of the investment return got much value than a possibility the project to cover the costs at 62.87% and the ratio of return to cost was 1.32 times which was higher than 1. As a result, the investment in Nham business gained more profit than the costs or it was worthy to deal with.
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