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Abstract:
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The purposes of this study are to explore the impact of the rice pledging scheme and analyze the factors affecting Thai rice export volume to ASEAN +3 countries. Using the Markov Regime Switching Models to analyze the quantity of Thai rice exports to ASEAN +3 countries in a situation when the quantity of rice exports increase and decrease. Then, studying the period of adaptation from one situation to another. This study has defined the scope of the study using secondary data annually from 2000 to 2016
The research finds show that gross domestic product of ASEAN +3 and THB exchange rate against USD affected on Thailand's export volume of rice in the same direction. World rice yield, Thai rice export price and rice pledge scheme changed on Thailand's export volume of rice in the opposite direction. If, the government using pledge policy the quantity of rice export is reduced. The expected duration of the rice export will be in the increasing situation around 3 years, therefore it will adjust to the situation of rice export decline, and the expected duration of the trading volume of rice was in a declining condition around 3 years, so it will adjust to the situation of rice export increase. Therefore the government should focus on the Thai rice strategy plan in long term and short term. Setting the Thai rice strategy for supported rice production and export sustainably. Including forecast demand on long terms to farmers for support the quantity of export rice which will be changed in the future. Furthermore, this strategy also affected to raise the income of Thai farmers. Moreover, the government should be considered on the impact of pledge scheme for worth economic analysis to become on future.
Key word : Effects of the Rice Pledging Scheme, ASEAN +3
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