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Abstract:
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The research aims to study 1) parboiled rice exporting situation to 3 countries such as Oman, Mozambique, and Jordan 2) analyze the affecting factors on the demand of parboiled rice exporting situation to 3 countries namely Oman, Mozambique, and Jordan.
Methods of this research are as follows. Research data were three months time series of Thailand’s parboiled rice exporting price to the 3 countries, India’s parboiled rice exporting price to the 3 countries, currency exchange rate of the 3 countries, inflation rate of the 3 countries, and national income of the 3 countries, Oman, Mozambique, and Jordan, from the year 2004 – 2015, total of 11 years. Data analysis was done using the time series followed Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test (ADF) method of unit root test on the studied variable. The tested variable then went through co-integration test of Engle and Granger, using ARDL equation. Then Error Correction Model was performed on the variable to create the co-integration by using a technique application from Error Correction Model : ECM of Engle and
Granger.
The study result of Thailand’s parboiled rice exporting situation to 3 countries namely Oman, Mozambique, and Jordan found that the 3 countries had the parboiled rice importing ratio between the year 2004 -2015 exporting percentage of 0.34, 0.14 and 0.46 respectively. There was a parboiled rice import from Thailand every year except in 2004; Mozambique did not have any parboiled rice import from Thailand. It was also found that the year 2008 Oman had the highest parboiled rice import from Thailand compared to the other 2 countries. Jordan had consecutively imported parboiled rice from Thailand. However, the export of parboiled rice to Mozambique was found in the lowest amount among 3 countries. This might be because Mozambique had also imported parboiled rice from South Africa and United States. These import value from the two countries might affect the finding number.
The analysis of affecting factors on Thailand’s parboiled rice exporting demand to the 3 countries, Oman, Mozambique, and Jordan, was as follows.
For Oman, it was found that the national income correlated in the same direction to Thailand’s parboiled rice export amount. Parboiled rice was a common good for Oman’s citizen. However, inflation rate correlated in the opposite direction to Thailand’s parboiled rice export amount.
For Mozambique, it was found that the national income and currency exchange rate correlated in the same direction to Thailand’s parboiled rice export amount. Parboiled rice was found as a common good for Mozambique’s citizen. Nevertheless, inflation rate, Thailand’s parboiled rice export price, and India’s parboiled rice export price correlated in the opposite direction to Thailand’s parboiled rice export amount.
For Jordan, it was found that there was no variable correlated to Thailand’s parboiled rice export amount. This may happen due to political issue and the inside and outside insurgency of Jordan. They affect the instability of Thailand’s parboiled rice export amount.
Error Correction Model Test found that when there was deviation between the actual value and equilibrium of Thailand’s parboiled rice export amount, there would not be any self-adjustment to the long-run equilibrium.
Key word: model, demand, export parboiled rice, Thailand
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